NAON Strategic Select Fund net value plunged 8 in a single day.56% stepped on Redang East Bonds

NAON Strategic Select Fund net value plunged 8 in a single day.56% stepped on Redang East Bonds
Original title: Respect!Equity fund’s net worth plunged by more than 8% in a single day. The reason was that it was a bond?  Source: Wealth Management We have another public debt fund “sword-sword” problem debt, which lowered its estimate.  Today (January 7), Nuo An Fund issued a bond budget adjustment announcement. Due to the “Nuo An Strategic Select Stocks” and “Nuo An Ju Li Bonds”, Dandong Port Group Co., Ltd. 2015 medium term notes(Hereinafter referred to as 15 Dandong Port MTN001) expires and pays principal and interest. According to relevant regulations, the equity of Lingang Group held by the two priority fund products is 0.20 yuan / serving for estimation.  In October 2017, Dandong Port issued a “14 Dandong Port MTN001” material breach of contract which was just the beginning of a nightmare for holders. In 2018, Dandong Port ‘s default debt broke out in full, the actual controller lost contact, and the company went bankrupt and reorganized.The merger institution is in the same court; today, the failure of Dandong Port’s bankruptcy and reorganization plan has once again been scorned by the public offering institution, and the conversion movement will cause the change in the net value of the holding fund, of which the net value of the selected stocks of NOAN Strategy fell by more than 8% on the day.  However, why is a stock fund dragged down by a “burst” bond?This has also attracted market attention.  Equity fund’s single-day net worth plummeted 8.56% On the last day of 2019, the Dandong Intermediate People’s Court issued a civil ruling on the bankruptcy and reorganization of Dandong Port, announcing that the total amount of Dandong Port’s bankruptcy and reorganization plan has not been passed.With the fermentation of this event, on January 7, 2020, the Nuoan Fund announced the valuation of the two funds 成都桑拿网 “Nuoan Strategic Select Stocks” and “Nuoan Juli Bonds” related to holding 15 Dandong Port MTN001.Out adjustment.  The announcement stated that the 15 Dandong Port MTN001 held by “Nuoan Strategic Select Stocks” and “Nuoan Juli Bonds” terminated the payment of principal and interest.According to the relevant regulations, the reorganization of the bonds held by the two fund products 15 Dandong Port MTN001 was settled as cash and the equity of Lingang Group. From January 6, the equity of Lingang Group will be zero.20 yuan / copy to estimate, the two funds on the same day suspended subscriptions, transfers and fixed investment business.  On the same day as the estimates were adjusted, the net value of selected stocks of the Noon Strategy plunged-wind data showed that the fund’s net value fell 8 on January 杭州桑拿 6.56%.  诺安基金向理财不二牛(ID:buerniu5188)解释称,“2019年12月31日,在我司连续两次投下反对票后,辽宁省丹东市中级人民法院直接在‘全国企业破产重整案件信息网’上发布《关于批准丹东港集团重整草案的裁定》,裁定批准《重整计划(草案)》并终止丹东港集团的重整程序,且裁定为终审裁定,强制的裁定。Therefore, the company must make estimation adjustments to the Noon Strategic Select Stock Fund.The adjustment of this estimate is due to the impact of changes in the Dandong Port Bonds held by NOA Strategy Selection, and the fund is currently operating normally.Niu Mei looked at the fund’s quarterly reports over the years and found that 15 Dandong Port MTN001 appeared in its heavy storage bond list and returned to the third quarter of 2015: 600,000, accounting for 2 of the fund’s net worth.33% of the board ranked the third largest heavy bond, and in the third quarter of 2016 disappeared from the heavy bond list.At that time, this fund was still a capital-protected fund and had not yet been transformed, namely Nuoanhuixin Capital-guaranteed hybrid fund.  On March 10, 2018, due to the inability to repay at maturity, 15 Dandong Port MTN001 materially defaulted, and it was included in the accounts receivable at the end of the first quarter of the year.In June 2018, the capital-protected fund started to convert from Nuoan Huixin Capital-guaranteed hybrid to Nuoan’s strategically selected stocks. The fund’s fund share also changed from 13 at the end of the first quarter of 2018.6.3 billion copies 3 at the end of the second quarter.100 million copies, a total shrinkage of more than 1 billion.However, even if the account receivable is allocated, when the bond’s valuation is reduced to zero.After 2 yuan, the fund’s net value will inevitably fluctuate greatly.  A third-party fund platform person told Niu Mei, “If a bond is at risk and trading is suspended, the price of the bond will be adjusted to a reasonable level in the same way as a stock. The bond is normally around 100 yuan, and liquidity risks generally fall to80, there is a default risk generally drops to 50, really default is worthless.After the ‘Dang Lei’ Dandong Port coupon, both funds have been involved in the redemption of shares, and the fund size is relatively small, so the impact on the net value is relatively large.In addition, the amount of funds receivable and the size of the fund will have different effects on the fund’s net worth.Niu Mei noticed that the fund quickly opened a position in the fourth quarter of 2018, raising the stock position to 74.94%, “eating” on the stock market rose dividends in the first quarter of last year, and increased to 80 in the middle of last year.10%, slightly replaced 79 in the third quarter of 2019.44%.Wind data shows that as of January 6, since 2019, the stock selection rate of NOAN Strategy has reached 35.47%, underperforming stock fund 40 over the same period.71% average return.  The phenomenon of similar net decline in the “Mining” fund turned into a small and micro product also appeared in Nuoanjuli bonds.  According to Wind data, on January 6, the division of Nuo Anli Bonds A and C fell by 1.71%, 1.66%, the bottom of the similar fund industry quarterly rankings.Before the net value change, since 2019, the yield of A and C shares of Nou Juli Bonds were 3 respectively.9%, 3.45%, ranked behind similar funds.This fund was established in November 2014 and is a medium and long-term pure debt fund.  Niu Mei noticed that on the eve of the decline in net worth, investors had already heard the wind and moved to withdraw their capital early.  According to relevant announcements, Nuo Anli bonds were redeemed on December 24 last year. In order to ensure that old customers are not affected by the precision of decimal point retention, Nuo An Fund increased the accuracy of the net value of fund distribution on the same day.  Nuoanjuli bonds also encountered large capital flight in the past.  According to Wind data, the size of this fund was 47 in the first quarter of 2017.2 trillion, a sudden decline in the second quarter of 16.100 million US dollars, a decrease of 66%, and shrank to US $ 100 million at the end of the first quarter of 2018. At the end of the third quarter of the last year, the size of the fund was reduced to less than 30 million.  In the past two years, the credit bond market has experienced a “thunderstorm”, and there are not a few funds that have suffered net worth changes.  For example, Cinda Australia Bank belongs to a number of debt-based group holdings “16 Xinwei 01”. On January 25 last year, “16 Xinwei 01” was valued from 99.85 yuan down to 73.At 28 yuan, the net value of Cinda Australia’s pure bond fund fell more than 12% on the day.

Weichai Power (000338) Annual Report Commentary Report: Profit Close to Upper Limit of Performance Forecast and Estimated to Continue to Repair

Weichai Power (000338) Annual Report Commentary Report: Profit Close to Upper Limit of Performance Forecast and Estimated to Continue to Repair

Event: The company released its 18-year annual report, realizing revenue of 1593 trillion, an increase of 5%, and net profit of 86.

600 million US dollars, an annual increase of 27%, exceeding market expectations.

The fourth quarter profit increased month-on-month, and the gross profit margin of the parent company rebounded.

The company’s net profit attributable to its mother was 26 in the fourth quarter.

600 million, an annual increase of 20%, an increase of 65%.

The 18Q3 heavy truck industry has poor data, and the market is pessimistic about the industry. However, the 18Q4 industry grew in the traditional peak season compared to the previous quarter.

7% rebounded to 28 in 18Q4.


Heavy truck engines maintained a high market share, and many sources of profit blossomed.

The company’s sales volume of heavy truck engines was 36 in 18 years.

30,000 units, the same as the 17-year sales, corresponding to a replacement market share of 31.


Off-road engines have grown significantly, with loader engines of 3 tons and above8.

90,000 units, + 15% per year, 4 agricultural engine.

20,000 units, + 49% a year.

The source of net profit is more extensive. In 18 years, the heavy profit of Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck11.

900 million, formerly + 78%; Faster net profit 13.

100 million, previously + 28%; KION net profit is 25.

700 million, previously -2% (mainly due to the high base of one-time profit and loss brought about by the 17-year US tax reform).

Weichai’s progress in supporting heavy trucks exceeds market expectations, and the market share of heavy truck engines will continue to increase.

Following Weichai Engine ‘s heavy truck light truck, in the announcement of the 318th batch of new vehicle product announcements issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, a heavy truck tractor equipped with Weichai Engine appeared, and this product is Shandeka ‘s high-end brand.

After President Tan 杭州夜网论坛 concurrently served as the chairman of Sinotruk, entering the market is expected that the cooperation between the two parties will definitely be carried out, but the speed may not be too fast. Weichai Engines will need to enter Sinotruk or the second half of 19th.Time is significantly earlier than market expectations.

The cooperation between Weichai and FAW-Liberated Changchun has been strengthened at the same time. In the future, Weichai ‘s heavy truck engine market share will be further increased.

The defense of the blue sky continued to advance, supplemented + restricted travel accelerated national triple card replacement.

The national three standard heavy trucks are gradually scheduled to be embargoed in certain regions. The national three heavy truck scrap subsidies have been introduced one after another to accelerate 重庆耍耍网 the replacement and replacement of heavy trucks, which will effectively support sales this year and next.

Through the calculation of the inventory, we maintain the truck’s forecast that the sales volume of the heavy truck industry in 19 years will exceed 1 million. It is difficult for the heavy truck industry to experience a cliff-like decline in market concerns.

Strategic layout of fuel cells.

Weichai has a stake in Ballard, the world’s leading hydrogen fuel cell company, with a 19% stake.

9%, the two agreed to set up a joint venture in Shandong to jointly develop and produce hydrogen fuel cell power system products. The joint venture will receive Ballard’s next-generation LCS technology transfer for $ 90 million.

With the promotion of hydrogen energy policies and regulations, Weichai Power’s advance layout will benefit the company a lot.

Investment advice and rating: As the sales volume of the company’s related products grows faster than expected, the company’s net profit attributable to the mother will be forecast from 86 to 2019.

4 billion, 92.

400 million increased to 91.

8 billion, 98.

700 million, at the same time, the net profit attributable to the mother in 2021 is 103.

300 million, the price-earnings ratios are 9.

7 times, 9.

0 times, 8.6 times.

Maintain 19X target PE of 19 years, corresponding to target price from 14.

00 yuan increased to 15.

00 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: Distorted changes in social transportation structure, product sales fall short of expectations

Lao Fengxiang (600612): Significant increase in chain speed against the backdrop of upward gold prices

Lao Fengxiang (600612): Significant increase in chain speed against the backdrop of upward gold prices
1H19 performance growth We expect Lao Fengxiang’s first half of 2019 results: revenue of 28.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.3%; net profit attributable to mother 7.390,000 yuan, an increase of 13 in ten years.7%, corresponding to a net profit of 1.41 yuan; deducting non-net profit increases by 15 each year.1%.Performance expectations We expect (high-single-digit revenue growth, net profit growth of about 10%), due to the rise in gold prices in the second quarter to drive sales significantly faster than the previous month: single quarter revenue growth in the second quarter of 19th.8%, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 15.6%. Revenue split: Jewellery revenue increased by 10%, accounting for 95% of the group’s revenue.There were 3,589 silver outlets, a net increase of 68 from the end of last year (previously, the net expansion was 9 at the end of June last year.5%).Among them, there were 179 self-operated silver buildings and counters (including 19 overseas), and 3 net closed stores in the first half of the year; 3,410 chain stores and franchise stores (1,647 chain stores and 1,763 franchise stores), a net increase of 71 in the first half.The channel continued the expansion momentum of last year.In terms of categories, the sales volume of gold (the main component of jewelry sales) increased slightly in the first half of the year.65%, that is, the first half of revenue growth is mainly driven by price increases. Financial review: short-term increase in gross profit margin.5ppt to 7.9%; by region, the gross profit margins of mainland China (mainly franchising), Hong Kong and overseas (self-operated) are 9 respectively.7%, 25.9% and 28.6%.The selling and administrative expense ratio decreased slightly to zero in ten years.1ppt.Cash flow from operating activities increased for the first time by 102.3% to 23.600 million. The development trend refers to the main income growth trajectory driven by price increases in the first half of the year. We expect that the performance elasticity of companies with upward gold prices will gradually increase and fulfill.The company is expected to exceed its revenue by 460 ppm (equivalent to an annual increase of 5).1%) and net profit of 12.92 ppm (corresponding to a ten-year increase).3%) of the board’s target for 2019. Earnings Forecasts and Estimates We maintain our earnings forecasts for 2019 and 2020.62 yuan and 2.91 yuan is unchanged, corresponding to an annual increase of 13.9% and 11%.The current A-share contradiction corresponds to 20 in 2019/2020.1x / 18.1x price-earnings ratio.The current B-share contradiction corresponds to 9/2019/2020.1x / 8.2 times 杭州夜网论坛 price-earnings ratio. Considering the company’s stronger profit stability than the Hong Kong jewellery brand and gold price recovery expectations, the stock maintains an outperform rating and raises its target price by 25.0% to 65.55 yuan, corresponding to 25.0 times 2019 P / E ratio and 22.5 times the 2020 P / E ratio, 24 compared with the previous inclusion.3% upside.B shares maintain their Outperform rating and maintain 4.Target price of $ 34, corresponding to 11.5x 2019 P / E ratio and 10.4 times the 2020 P / E ratio, 27 compared with the same period last year.6% upside. Risks Gold prices are subject to fluctuations, and terminal consumption continues to be sluggish.

Follett (601865): New production line reduces costs and contributes significantly to 2019 price rises

Follett (601865): New production line reduces costs and contributes significantly to 2019 price rises
Brief evaluation of performance The company released its 2018 annual report with revenue of 30.64 ppm, a ten-year increase2.4%, net profit 4.07 billion, down 4 every year.5%, deducting non-net profit 3.700 million, down 9% a year, in line with market expectations. Operational analysis Efficient new 西安耍耍网 capacity put into production Hedging product price changes to achieve stable annual results: Affected by its 531 policy, photovoltaic glass prices fell in 2018, and Q3 low prices fell by 35% from earlier highs, although at the end of the yearThe price rebounded, but the growth rate was only 2017, and it still fell by about 15%. The company’s two new production lines of 1,000 tons of daily melting capacity, which were put into operation at the end of 2017 and the second quarter of 2018, have doubled the production capacityAt the same time, the average production cost has also been significantly reduced by about 10% compared to 2017, effectively hedging the change in product prices, thereby keeping the revenue stable. The company will usher in the volume and price of photovoltaic glass business in 2019: photovoltaic glass prices have rebounded since the fourth quarter of 2018, and the increase has increased by the end of the year. In March this year, the price increased significantly by 10%, although we gradually realized the expected 2019Annual photovoltaic glass prices will improve, but the pace of price increases is still faster than expected.According to the highest macro supply and demand dynamics of photovoltaic glass (supply + 15% vs. Demand + 25?30%) and the current micro-inventory judgment of the company, we expect glass prices will continue to increase during the year.The two thousand-ton production lines that the company put into operation last year will contribute a lot of output in 2019. At the same time, it is expected that two thousand-ton production lines will be put into production in Anhui and Vietnam in the second and fourth quarters of this year.%the above. The expansion cycle is long, the competition is excellent, and double-sided accelerated penetration. The high prosperity of photovoltaic glass in 2020 continues: Due to the photovoltaic glass industry’s one-and-a-half year expansion cycle, the potential new capacity in 2020 is basically clear (about 20%); And the introduction of new capacity of industry leading companies in advance, the industry concentration will continue to increase, the leading advantage of the industry duopoly will be further expanded.At the same time, transform 1) 2.5/2.The price of 0mm thin glass is gradually rationalized; 2) the battery thinning trend is accelerated; 3) reverse power generation has been widely verified by actual generator applications; the penetration rate of double-sided power generation components will be accelerated, thereby increasing the demand for photovoltaic glass faster than photovoltaicThe growth rate of newly installed capacity is based on the assumption that the new installed capacity will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 20%. The demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to achieve 100% growth within three years.Therefore, the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to continue this year’s high prosperity in 2020 with a high probability. Profit adjustment and investment recommendations for our adjusted company 2019?Net profit forecast for 21E is 6.7 (+ 3%), 9.8 (+ 17%), 120,000 yuan, three-year net profit compound growth rate of 43%, the corresponding EPS is 0.35, 0.50, 0.62 yuan. The company’s current A-share competition corresponds to 49 / 33xPE in 2019/20, and we downgrade the A-share rating to “overweight”; while the H-share competition only corresponds to 10 / 7xPE in 2019/20, maintaining the “buy” rating on H-shares. Risks suggest that new installed capacity worldwide, or the penetration rate of double-sided power generation modules, or the company’s capacity construction progress is less than expected.

Xusheng shares (603305) in-depth report: starting at Tesla, not just Tesla

Xusheng shares (603305) in-depth report: starting at Tesla, not just Tesla

Work with Tesla to seize the opportunity in the new energy vehicle industry.

The rise of new energy vehicles will bring about loosening and changes in the traditional automotive supply chain pattern, thereby releasing huge 杭州夜生活网 industry dividends.

The company provides drive unit housings, radiator housings and other components for Tesla ModeS / X and Mode3. The matching value of ModeS / X is 3500-4000 yuan, and the supporting value of Mode3 is about 2,000 yuan.

Mode3 was delivered in North America last year.

40,000 vehicles, including the third and fourth quarters, production ramped rapidly. This year, Mode3 will be delivered in Europe and China. ModeY will be delivered next autumn. Production and sales in 19-20 will maintain rapid growth.

Following Tesla, the company’s performance has achieved rapid growth.

The customer base expansion began with Tesla, not just Tesla, from Tesla to traditional automotive giants (new energy projects), from high-end brands to mid-to-high-end brands.

In recent years, the company has continuously consolidated its main business and raised competition barriers. It currently leads the industry in terms of production equipment, technology, capacity utilization, etc., and has simultaneous R & D capabilities and rapid service capabilities for new energy vehicle customers.

Tesla accounts for 50% to 60% of the company’s sales revenue, and the company’s pioneering efforts for other customers continue to increase.

At present, the company has launched different degrees of cooperation with domestic new energy vehicle customers, including Polaris, Weilai, Ningde Times, Great Wall Motors, etc .; the company also has direct or indirect new energy projects with Volkswagen, Porsche, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and other car companies.Cooperation, through the landing of orders, is expected to form a new point of performance growth.

The product line has been expanded from aluminum die castings to aluminum forgings, which is expected to achieve import substitution.

The company completed its issuance in November last year.

200 million convertible bonds. The funds are used for the development of aluminum suspension forgings for automobiles. The products are mainly connecting rods, torsion arms, knuckles, and hem arms required to connect automobile wheels and chassis systems. After the project is put into production, it can meet 250,000From 400 to 400,000 vehicles.

This product is mainly used in high-end models, and the output value is concentrated in foreign companies. At present, only a few international manufacturers provide supply capabilities. The product has been in a state of seeking alternative funding for a long time.

The company surpassed its strong technical capabilities and is expected to penetrate this market, thereby continuously increasing its bicycle supporting value.

Profit forecast and estimation: The company’s revenue for 2019-2021 is expected to be 14 respectively.

9, 19.


600 million, the growth rate is 36%, 30.

8%, 31.

2%, net profit is 3 respectively.

75, 4.

82, 6.

3.7 billion, with growth rates of 27.

8%, 28.

4%, 32.


Initial income is 0.

94, 1.

20, 1.

59 yuan.

Considering the company’s industry prosperity and its high growth, it will give 30 times PE in 2020 with a target price of 36 yuan.

Give “Highly Recommended” rating for the first time.

Risk warning: Tesla’s production capacity and demand exceed expected risks; customers cut prices, raw material prices increase, leading to gross margin pressure; Sino-U.S. Trade tariffs rise; factory restructuring affects the income statement.

Chongqing Beer (600132): 4Q off-season profit performance in line with expectations

Chongqing Beer (600132): 4Q off-season profit performance in line with expectations
Event: In 2018, the company realized operating income34.6杭州桑拿网 .7 billion, an annual increase of 9.16%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 20184.4.0 billion, an annual increase of 22.80%; the corresponding return is 0.83 yuan.Dividend plan: It is planned to distribute a cash dividend of 8 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. Comments on reducing costs and increasing efficiency continued to show significant results. The company achieved a profit of 19.3 million yuan in the off-season in 4Q, and the company successfully completed its 2018 operating target.Initial gross profit margin 39.9%, increasing by 0 every year.Six single companies operate in a foreign system and achieve efficiency gains through reasonable internal cost reductions, and gradually increase and decrease the three expense ratios2.19 perfect to 18.09%, with a final net profit margin of 5.65%, a slight increase of 0 a year.39 averages. In a single quarter, 4Q beer consumption achieved operating income in the off-season5.44 trillion US dollars, an annual increase of 11.3%; realized profit of 19.3 million yuan, an annual increase of 44%, in line with our expectations. The beer mix has become more clear and upscale. In 2018, the company achieved beer sales of 94.430,000 kiloliters, an increase of 640% in ten years.The average annual ton price for exploration is 3440 yuan per kiloliter, an increase of 2 in the same period.0%.In terms of products, high-end beer has achieved income5.0.8 billion, an annual increase of 3.0%, sales of 9.430,000 kiloliters, an increase of 4 in ten years.9%; mid-range beer realized income of 24.1.2 billion, an increase of 11 a year.6% of sales were 67.440,000 kiloliters, an increase of 9 in ten years.6%; low-grade beer realized income4.2.7 billion, down by 0 every year.6%, sales of 17.560 thousand kiloliters, temporarily downgraded to 3.8%.The company’s low-end product series continue to improve and replace and upgrade, and the product mix has become more clear and upscale. The company has a geographical advantage. The demand for catering in Sichuan and Chongqing has grown well. The company has 13 wineries and 1 share winery. The target sales market is concentrated in Chongqing, Sichuan, and Hunan. The Chongqing market has contributed over 70%Operating income, and Chongqing’s beer market share reached 85%.Chongqing is a city with a well-developed food culture. It especially likes spicy taste, and spicy taste goes well with beer.Catering demand remains high to push the boundaries of Chongqing beer consumption. The recovery of the beer industry has not changed. In 2018, the national beer output was 38.12 million liters, which increased slightly by zero.5%, the first positive growth since 2014, we believe that the recovery of the beer industry has not changed.The company’s tax and additional tax rate account for about 8% of revenue. If calculated based on the same product sales price, it is expected that the manufacturing upgrade rate will be reduced from 16% to 13% starting on April 1st. It will be beneficial to the company ‘s profit.We think it remains to be seen whether prices will adjust. Based 重庆耍耍网on the profit forecast and rating, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 37% in 2019-2021.1.1 billion, 40.06 billion and 43.46 trillion US dollars, respectively increased by 7%, 8% and 8.5%; net profit attributable to mothers respectively 5.1.8 billion, 6.1 ppm and 7 ppm, increasing 28%, 18% and 15% each year; corresponding EPS is 1.07, 1.26, 1.44 yuan / share. At present, it corresponds to 2019 and 33 times and 28 times dynamic PE in 2020, respectively.Maintain BUY rating. Risk warning 1. The prices of packaging materials and raw materials have risen more than expected, 2. The consumption tax has increased, and 3, the promotion and advertising costs have risen more than expected.

SAIC Group (600104) 2019 Interim Report Comments: Results released bottomed out, signals gathered, autonomous changes highlighted, “Strong Push” rating

SAIC Group (600104) 2019 Interim Report Comments: Results released bottomed out, signals gathered, autonomous changes highlighted, “Strong Push” rating

Matters: The company 武汉夜网论坛 releases its interim results: the company sold 2.93 million cars in the first half of 2019, replacing 16.

6%, realized revenue of 367.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -19.

5%, net profit attributable to mothers was 1.38 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.

5%, net profit after deduction of 125 million US dollars, exceeding the period 27.


In the quarter, the company sold 140 cars in 2Q19.

40,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, revenue of $ 176.1 billion, each extension of -22%, net profit to mother 55.

100 million, a year-on-year decrease of 41%.

Deduct non-net profit of 490,000 yuan.

Comment: Destocking leads to a decline in earnings, and the performance is in line with expectations in the first half of the year. The market was passively destocked due to the National 5 / Six switch. The increase in terminal discounts has led to the overall decline in industry profits.

1H19 company’s non-profit deductions fell by 47.

700 million, of which the revenue of joint ventures decreased by 2.5 billion, and autonomous increase increased by about 2 billion.

Looking at the expansion of the joint venture’s investment income, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM’s manufacturing caliber profits decreased by 2.5 billion and 1.5 billion US dollars respectively. We offset the revenue from the financial sector with the manufacturing sector’s share.

In terms of quarters, the net profit after deduction is 49 trillion, every 39 years.


The investment income of joint ventures has basically stabilized since 3Q18.

2Q1960 trillion, a reduction of 10 trillion per year.

The autonomous budget is $ 1.8 billion, an increase of $ 2.4 billion a year.

The cost control is excellent, destocking releases the bottom signal 1H19 three fee cost fee11.

8%, an increase of one year, mainly due to declining income.

1H19 management expenses were 96 million, a decrease of 28%, and the company’s expense control was obvious.

During the same period, the company’s overall inventory was 57.7 billion, down 1.2 billion from the beginning of the period.

SAIC’s autonomous inventory is 25.

300 million, down 25 from the beginning of the period.


The lowest value for the calendar year 2017.

The joint venture stabilized, new models eased the market pressure in the first half of the year, and faced unfavorable market conditions from multiple parties. The joint venture performed slightly better than the market, and single-car profit growth was within expectations.

Volkswagen, GM’s follow-on new models are expected to stabilize.

The net profit of SAIC Volkswagen’s manufacturing caliber is 990,000 yuan (-36.

2%), bike profit is 1.

10,000 yuan, down by 0 every year.

440,000 yuan.

SAIC GM’s caliber net profit was 700,000 yuan (-31.

6%), bike profit is 0.

80,000 yuan, down by 0 every year.

230,000 yuan.

SAIC Wuling returns to its mother with a net profit of 800 million (-60.
8%), bike profit is 0.
110,000 yuan, down by 0 every year.

09 million yuan.

Voluntary temporary expansion, focusing on the voluntary continuous extension of the performance of the market outlook, the gross profit margin fell in the second quarter of 1919.

9%, due to the decline of new energy, destocking, and the proportion of low-end models increased.

SAIC has sold 31 in 1H19.

10,000 (-13.

4%) and income of 289.

300 million (-26%), with a predicted net profit of 2.3 billion and a bicycle profit of -0.

740,000 yuan, a decline of 0 every year.

680,000 yuan.

We believe that after the change of company leaders, SAIC’s independent development is expected to release more space.

从目前i5\RX5 Max 上市的持续表现,公司做好自主的决心可见一斑。We continue to focus on SAIC’s follow-up changes.

Investment suggestion: The release of bottom performance signals and the aggregation of autonomous changes are defined as a variety of adverse passive factors of “strong push” rating, leading to the company’s first half profit 杭州夜网论坛 return.

We believe that the market has experienced cyclical downturns and passive destocking adjustments. The bottom signal of the market is very obvious.

After the company’s new leader takes office, the vitality and space of autonomy is expected to be further released.

Do we maintain the company 2019?
Net profit in 2021 is 308.

600 million, 330.

0 billion, 353.

The forecast of 600 million, the corresponding PE is 9, 9, 8 times.

We have outstanding “strong push” rating for the company and maintain target price of 30 yuan, corresponding to 10 times PE in 2020.

Risk Warning: The recovery of terminal consumption has not reached expectations.

Huang Shanghuang (002695) Quarterly Review: Strong Management, Reduce Costs, Expand Stores, Internal and External Reforms Bring Growth Channels

Huang Shanghuang (002695) Quarterly Review: Strong Management, Reduce Costs, Expand Stores, Internal and External Reforms Bring Growth Channels

The third quarterly report shows that Huang Shanghuang’s vitality is constantly radiating. The company has developed steadily. On October 22, 2019, Huang Shanghuang announced the third quarterly report.

According to the announcement, in the first three quarters of 19 years, Huang Shanghuang achieved total operating income16.

77 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

28%; net profit attributable to mother is 2.

12 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.


Company Q3 achieved operating income 5.

09 million yuan, an increase of 20 in ten years.

5%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.

71 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.


The current accounts receivable is 0.

89 million, an increase of 0 from the end of 2018.

5.7 billion, mainly due to the increase in customer receivables from subsidiaries.

The advance payment for the current period is 0.

160,000 yuan, an increase of 0 from the end of 2018.

07 million yuan, an increase of 76.

89%, the first is due to the increase in advance payment of customer orders.

Net cash flow from operating activities from the beginning of the year to the end of the reporting period was 2.

62 trillion, down -20 a year.


This was mainly due to the increase in cash paid for purchasing goods and labor services in the current period, which resulted in an increase in the repeated subtotal of cash from operating activities2.

10,000 yuan.

Established Jiangxi Dujiaoxi Food Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, for the production and sale of Chuan Chuan food items.

Proper cost control. By improving raw material procurement planning and increasing profit margins, the company’s 2018 annual report disclosed that the company consolidated the company’s main raw material inventory unit price in accordance with the formulated “Major Raw Material Strategic Reserve Management System” and referred to the downward trend of raw material market.The purchase price was started at a relatively low level, and the strategic reserve of main raw materials was reduced, thereby reducing the average cost of the company’s main raw materials and buffering the high raw material costs that had been high in the first three quarters.

Continuous empowerment of management, continuous release of management promotion bonuses brought by internal and external reforms The company has developed a complete set of standard system documents to manage franchise stores, including store location, store image, staff training, product quality, product prices,Information systems, store supervision, etc.

Generally speaking, it adopts information system and related systems for standardized operation.

At present, the company’s main policies on franchise stores include: pre-opening review, store decoration, staff training and opening counseling.

The store 深圳丝袜会所 expanded rapidly, carefully selected the location, the blind zone expansion 1 + N strategy, stable growth and guaranteed store opening strategy. Now the target number is 1,000, basically strengthening the confidence after the good market feedback in the second quarter.

As of June 30, 2019, 436 new stores had been opened in the first half of this year, which basically reached the plan for opening stores in the first half of the year.

The second half of the year is the peak season for store openings. The company will increase its efforts to open stores and strive to shrink in time to complete its opening tasks.

Earnings Forecasts and Estimates We raised our company’s earnings forecasts.

Earlier expectations forecasted income of 19/20/21 to be 22.

5/30/39 billion, with a net profit of 2.



5.3 billion, EPS is 0.


88 yuan.

Estimated income for 苏州桑拿网 19/20/21 is now 22.



700 million, net profit increased to 2.



2 billion, EPS is 0.



98 yuan.

According to the improvement of the company’s internal and external environment and the improvement of the industry’s concentration, the company was given a 30-fold estimate in 2020 with a target price of 21.

6 yuan, “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: food safety risk, market risk, management risk of franchise stores, franchise stores

China National Travel Service (601888): Tax-free leader returns with slightly better than expected Q1 results

China National Travel Service (601888): Tax-free leader returns with slightly better than expected Q1 results

Event: On April 26, China National Tourism Administration released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report.

The company achieved operating income of 470 in 2018.

07 ppm / 66 increase.

21%; net profit attributable to mother 30.

95 ‰ / increased by 22.

29%; net profit after deduction to mother 31.

44 ppm / increase of 27.

82%; basic return 1.

585 yuan / increase 22.


Among them Q4 realized income of 129.

06 ppm / 71.

22%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

90 ‰ / down 37.

46%; net profit after deduction is 451.

55 ‰ / down 20.


The company achieved operating income of 136 in Q1 2019.

92 ‰ / up 54.

72%; net profit attributable to mother 23.

06 ppm / 98 increase.

8%; net profit after deduction is 15.

89 ‰ / increase 37.

37%; basic return 1.

1809 yuan / 98 increase.


Comments: 1. Strong growth in tax-free sales, Q4 performance exceeded expectations, Q1 slightly exceeded expectations.

In 2018, the company’s revenue increased by 66%, and net profit attributable to mothers increased by 22%, thanks to the increase in the scope of consolidation in Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Capital Airport, and various duty-free goods such as Sanya have maintained rapid growth.

Q4 performance growth is expected to exceed expectations, but the performance growth express report has been announced, mainly due to accrual of employee bonuses, inventory depreciation provisions and deferred income and other expenses, affecting Q4 earnings.

In Q1 2019, the company’s revenue increased by 54.

7%, and its China Travel Service contributed 6.

At 1 trillion, Shanghai Airport contributed about 39 trillion in revenue and 91 in internal business revenue.

6 ppm / increase of about 40%; net profit attributable to mothers increased significantly by 98.

8%, which excludes the China National Tourism Organization to increase profits.

2 ppm, a 37 increase after deduction.

4%, still slightly exceeded market expectations.

2, Q1 Sanya stores continued to grow rapidly, and traditional tax-free channels grew even longer.

Excluding the consolidation factor in 2018, China exemption revenue increased by approximately 28% and net profit increased by 9.5%, of which, Sanya Duty Free Shops for the first time 1.7 million person-time shopping / an increase of 29.

8%, the unit price of 4712 yuan / slightly increased by 1.

5%, realized income of 80.

1 ppm / 31 increase.

7% (Q4 growth of 37.

2%), the liberalization of the tax exemption policy and the increase in promotional efforts, driving Q4 revenue to accelerate, and return to net profit of the mother11.

1 ppm / increase of 21.

4% (down 7 in the fourth quarter.

2%), mainly affected by accrued expenses; traditional tax-free business income of about 6.6 billion US dollars / 24% increase, net profit14.

6 ppm / increase of 1.

9%, Baiyun Airport and permanent entry stores are still in the climbing period, increasing revenue but not increasing profits.

The performance of Sanya stores in Q1 continued to be dazzling. It is expected that revenue will increase by 29%. Benefiting from brand promotion and policy liberalization, the conversion rate of tourists will continue to increase.

3. Shanghai and Beijing airports grew well, and Hong Kong airport stores entered a break-even.

Shanghai Airport Duty Free Shop has consolidated its accounts since March 2018, and achieved revenue of 32 in Q4.

800 million, net profit attributable to mother 0.

77 trillion, a substantial increase in performance; Capital Airport Duty Free Shop Q4 achieved 19 revenue.

3 ‰ / increased by 30.

1%, strong endogenous income growth, net profit attributable to mother 0.

6 ppm / down 29%, the deduction point increased; Hong Kong Airport Duty Free Shop opened in July 2018, gradually replacing about 1.

600 million, Q4 entered the breakeven.

4. Insufficient travel agency business, expansion in February significantly increased profits.

In 2018, the company’s tourism business revenue increased by 0.

3%, gross margin slightly increased by 0.

41pct, China National Tourism Administration exceeded 44.33 million yuan / profit of 34.03 million yuan over the same period.

On February 19, 2019, China National Tourism Administration transferred the China National Tourism Corporation to its major shareholder, China National Tourism Group, and completed the change registration, which converted to a thicker quarterly report and brought non-recurring profits.

200 million. In the future, China National Tourism Administration will focus on the main business of tax exemption.

5. The daily consolidation resulted in an increase in gross profit margin and an increase in selling expenses.

In 2018, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 41.

5% / up 11.

6pct, of which tax-free business gross margin is 53.

1% / up 7.

36pct (H1 / H2 tax-free business 厦门夜网 gross profit margins are 52.

49% / 53.

57%), lowered, Shanghai Airport mainly focuses on high-margin aroma and brings structural changes; reorganization, the company strengthens negotiations with suppliers, optimizes the brand structure, and improves gross profit margin; sales expense ratio24.

7% / up 12.

2pct, mainly due to the increase in sales expenses and the increase in airport rental fees brought by the consolidation of Shanghai in Shanghai; management expenses.

4% / down 0.

4pct; financial expense ratio-6.98 million / 14.29 million yuan in the same period, foreign exchange loss in 20181.

1.7 billion.
6. Promote policies and preparations for stores in the city, and actively expand overseas markets.
In 2019, the company’s outreach will focus on: 1) preparing for Daxing Airport Duty Free Shop and Hong Kong City Store; 2) promoting domestic shopping policies 四川耍耍网 of city stores and working in city stores; 3) vigorously developing tax refund business for domestic products; 4) activelyPay attention to the bidding for duty-free business of national key airports along the “Belt and Road”; 5) Complete the expansion and expansion project of Cambodia ‘s Westport Duty Free Shop and officially open its business to expand the duty free shop business in Southeast Asia and other countries; 6) Pay attention to bidding and M & A opportunities for large-scale retail platforms in Asia PacificExplore the acquisition of upstream and downstream enterprises at home and abroad.

Endogenous aspects will continue to optimize procurement channels and increase the introduction of marketable products.

7. Investment suggestions: The company’s annual report and first quarter report continued to exceed the expected income. Due to the expense accrued at the end of Q4, the profit exceeded expectations, but the market has digested it, and Q1 has returned to high growth.

This year, Haikou is exempt from consolidation, Haikou stores have opened, tax exemption policies have been relaxed, and Hong Kong airport stores have turned losses. Many factors have driven this year, and the base was not high last year, so this year’s performance can maintain a rapid growth.

We expect the net profit attributable to mothers to be 47 in 2019-2021.



3 ppm (assuming that Haiwai will begin consolidation in 2020), with an annual increase of 54% / 6% / 14% (excluding the impact of travel agency divisions, performance growth of 31% / 25% / 14%), corresponding to a PE valuation of 32x / 30x / 26x, taking into account the expectations of Beijing-Shanghai-Shanghai’s in-store policy liberalization, and the increase in sea-exemption consolidation, given the 2020 35x target estimate, the target price is 90 yuan, maintaining the “strongly recommended -A” rating.

8. Risk factors: breakdown of macroeconomic growth rate; systemic risk in the tourism industry.

Xiangpiaopiao (603711) 2019 Interim Report: Performance Turns Loss into Profit

Xiangpiaopiao (603711) 2019 Interim Report: Performance Turns Loss into Profit
Performance turned losses into profits, with a significant scale effect in 2019H1 revenue13.7.7 billion (+58.26%), net profit attributable to mother 0.2.4 billion (+143.11%), of which 19Q2 revenue was 5.40 billion (+148.22%), net profit attributable to mother-0.2.8 billion (+65.69%), 19Q2 return to the mother’s net profit repeatedly narrowed significantly for many consecutive years.The company’s mid-term results have turned losses into profits. We believe that juice tea is the most successful. The second quarter is the company’s traditional off-season. At this time, the volume of juice tea will increase and the company’s performance will increase.1.7 北京夜生活网 billion, accounting for over 77% of Q2 revenue.With the volume of juice tea, the company’s profitability has improved significantly under the company’s scale effect, and the expense ratio has dropped significantly: 19Q2 gross margin 33.58% (+16.39pcts), 19Q2 net margin -5.27% (+32.83pcts).19H1 advance payment 1.07 billion, ranked 56 at the end of 18 years.60%, mainly due to the decline in dealer orders entering the off-season. The product structure continues to be optimized, and fruit juice tea is expected to become a billion single product. From the perspective of products, the company’s product structure continues to be optimized. The traditional solid milk tea 19H1 revenue was 7.12 billion (-2.81%), the proportion dropped to about 50%. The shift in brewing revenue in the second quarter was mainly due to entering the off-season and actively controlling the destocking of the goods in the second quarter. Since liquid milk tea is not currently the company’s main business, 19H1 achieved zero revenue.6.3 billion, maintaining a 13% natural growth; the company’s main fruit tea 19H1 revenue5.8.8 billion, fruit juice tea has achieved a total of 7 revenues since listing.8.9 billion, we expect fruit juice tea at the end of 19 is expected to hit a billion single items.With the continuous optimization of the company’s product structure, we believe that the company’s performance growth is expected to improve.From a regional point of view, the company’s various regions have developed smoothly. The share of the base camp in East China has dropped from 45% in 18H1 to about 36% in 19H1. Other regions such as North China and Northeast have performed well with growth rates of 120.19%, 324.03%.As of 2019H1, the company has a total of 1,377 dealers, a net increase of 90. In terms of new product rich product matrix and Tianjin factory to increase performance, the company has formed a solid milk tea series (classic series, delicious series), fruit tea (three flavors, positioning a new generation of tea), liquid milk tea (MECO cow milk teaLanfangyuan Series) Product Matrix.In addition, three flavors of light milk tea were launched in May and the Lan Fang Yuan Dai milk tea was newly launched in August, effectively complementing and enriching the company’s product line.In terms of channels, the number of outlets for fruit juice tea in 2019H1 has reached 41.790,000 homes, with a delivery rate of only 12.6%.Xiangpiaopiao’s shop outlets accounted for only 48% of the goods.9%, the market space is still affordable.In terms of production capacity, the company currently has four production bases, including the initial commissioning of the Tianjin Liquid Factory. It is expected that the production capacity will be released in the fourth quarter. Investment advice forecasts EPS 0 for 2019-2021.88/1.06/1.33 yuan, corresponding to PE40 / 33/27, maintain “Buy” rating. Risks indicate food safety issues; product risks; sales of fruit juice tea are less than expected;